New-Vehicle Sales Expected to Dip Slightly in Q3 Amid Economic Headwinds, According to Edmunds
Edmunds analysts forecast a healthy September SAAR of 16M despite mounting affordability pressures
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 4,080,755 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2026, representing a 0.7% decrease from the third quarter of 2025 and a 3.6% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2026.
“High interest rates, elevated gas prices and broader cost-of-living pressures are giving car shoppers plenty of reasons to hesitate, but the new-vehicle market isn’t stalling out,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “Ultimately, people still need reliable transportation, and that replacement demand is helping keep sales from plummeting. But make no mistake: Q3 was primarily powered by the top half of a K-shaped economy. Higher-income buyers who aren't as squeezed by borrowing costs are likely doing the heavy lifting right now, while budget-conscious households are forced to hang onto older cars much longer or seek used-car alternatives.”
The traditional model-year changeover is also unfolding differently this year. Edmunds data reveals that 2026 model-year vehicles account for 86% of new-vehicle sales in September — the highest share of current-model-year vehicle sales for the month of September in Edmunds data going back to 2005 — while averaging just 58 days to turn.
“Summer’s end typically brings sell-down events for the outgoing model year, but this September, automakers aren't in the usual rush to move on from 2026 models,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “Normally, seeing this many current-model-year vehicles still in the market would raise a red flag that inventory isn't moving quickly enough and bigger incentives are needed to clear it out. But that's not what the data is showing: 2026 models are still selling at a healthy pace. Shoppers holding out for massive year-end blowout sales shouldn't assume they're a given.”
For shoppers, Drury says the data reinforces the value of focusing on the deal in front of them rather than trying to time the market.
“There may not be a magic moment to buy this year, so consumers need to be as diligent as ever and be ready to act when the right deal comes along rather than waiting for the calendar to deliver one,” says Drury.
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| SALES VOLUME | 2026 Q3 Forecast | 2025 Q3 Sales | 2026 Q2 Sales | Change from 2025 Q3 | Change from 2026 Q2 |
| GM | 669,044 | 710,462 | 715,024 | -5.8% | -6.4% |
| Toyota | 642,253 | 629,140 | 674,118 | 2.1% | -4.7% |
| Ford | 507,632 | 545,553 | 549,200 | -7.0% | -7.6% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 506,709 | 480,176 | 492,986 | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Honda | 400,545 | 358,848 | 420,089 | 11.6% | -4.7% |
| Stellantis | 315,631 | 325,426 | 328,816 | -3.0% | -4.0% |
| Nissan | 225,387 | 223,378 | 242,826 | 0.9% | -7.2% |
| Industry | 4,080,755 | 4,110,388 | 4,232,059 | -0.7% | -3.6% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2026 Q3 Forecast | 2025 Q3 Sales | 2026 Q2 Sales | Change from 2025 Q3 | Change from 2026 Q2 |
| GM | 16.4% | 17.3% | 16.9% | -5.1% | -3.0% |
| Toyota | 15.7% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| Ford | 12.4% | 13.3% | 13.0% | -6.3% | -4.1% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 12.4% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% |
| Honda | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 12.4% | -1.1% |
| Stellantis | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | -2.3% | -0.5% |
| Nissan | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 1.6% | -3.7% |
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
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Talia James-Armand Edmunds 310-491-8738 pr@edmunds.com
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